COVID-19 May Threaten the Recovery
The stock market doesn’t appear fazed by the recent increase in COVID-19 outbreaks, but underlying economic data is beginning to reflect the latest government and consumer shutdowns. LPL Research’s Weekly Market Commentary explains potential economic effects of another lockdown.
Stocks off to a strong start in December. The S&P 500 Index is following global stocks higher at open as we enter the final month of the year.
- Positive Asian manufacturing data helped spur international stocks overnight.
- China, Japan, and South Korea were all up over 1%.
- Europe is showing solid gains at midday.
Credit spreads have moved below historical averages.
- Both investment-grade and high-yield corporate bond credit spreads have moved below historical averages, as measured by Bloomberg Barclays indexes.
- Credit spreads have tightened quickly from their widest levels, reaching a level in months that took years after the 2008–09 recession.
- We believe the current level still represents something close to fair value for early cycle, although there are risks from economic uncertainty around the latest COVID-19 surge.
November was a record-breaking month. Thanks to gridlock in Washington and positive vaccine news, November was a record-breaking month for stocks.
- Best month for Dow since January 1987 (11.9%) and best November since 1928
- Best month ever for the STOXX 600 (16.7%)
- Best month ever for the Russell 2000 (18.3%)
- Best month for the S&P 500 (10.8%) and Nasdaq (11.8%) since April 2020
- Best month for Dow Transports since October 2011 (12.1%)
- Best month from PHLX Semiconductor Index since March 2003 (18.4%)
- Best month for Industrials (16.0%) and Financials (16.8%) since April 2009
- Second best month ever for energy (28.0%)
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